See maps with axes of attack
The final report of the US military services on the Ukrainian crisis was made public a while ago.
The Pentagon and the US Secret Service are talking about a large-scale Russian invasion, describing the worst-case scenario as what they consider to be the most likely. The Americans describe a scenario with the occupation of 2/3 of Ukraine.
They talk about a plan of Russian “pliers” and “lightning attack”.
Their reference to the movement of hundreds of Russian special forces Spetsnaz is remarkable.
The State Department’s response was immediate. US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said “the Russians will be filled with corpses.”
“It’s not just going to have a direct impact on the Russian economy. If Russia invades Ukraine, “Vladimir Putin must understand that the bags of corpses will be returned to Moscow.
“The people of Russia will suffer because the people of Russia will suffer because their economy has been completely destroyed ,” said Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman.
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USA: In 48 hours the Russian tanks enter Kiev
The Russian military could pursue nine different offensive routes in Ukraine for a full-scale invasion.
According to the final assessment of the US military and intelligence services, the Russian tanks could reach Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, within 48 hours.
According to the latest information, Russia has already deployed almost 100 of the 168 Battalions-Tactical groups of the Army, consisting of 800 to 900 soldiers each.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has sent staff and equipment from six Russian special operations units, Spetsnaz, to a total of seven. Each unit consists of 250 to 300 selected fighters.
Watch videos with the transfer of Bal-E coastal defense systems
The two most widespread invasion scenarios include a simultaneous attack from multiple directions, a maneuver known as tweezers or double shell.
The Russian army will occupy most of Ukrainian territory east of the Dnieper River.
About 50 percent of Ukraine’s military forces are in the area, including their most capable units.
Russian tanks and motorized units will cross the border into Russia and move towards Poltava and Kharkiv, encircling the cities as they move toward the Dnieper River.
The ground forces will advance along three lines from Donbass, moving east and south to the Crimea and taking the coastline along the Sea of Azov.
Russian military helicopters will simultaneously support an air strike from Crimea.
This option could also include an amphibious attack to occupy the Black Sea coast, as air and ground units will move from Odessa to Moldova to build a land bridge along the Black Sea.
Russia has already deployed submarine and five amphibious ships with Marine Battalions off the coast of Ukraine. Six more landing craft will be able to be there in a few days.
Attack from the north
An even more aggressive option adds two offensive routes from the north to encircle Kiev – and includes artillery fire, electronic warfare and possible ground troops moving south from Belarus to Zhytomer and east to Kiev.
The scenario includes another route, from Russia around the Chernobyl region and to the capital.
With established roads in the area, Russian tanks and military vehicles could be on the threshold of Kiev for the first two days.
The Russian military has deployed two advanced S-400 anti-aircraft systems in Belarus that will give them air superiority over much of the country with the ability to shoot down aircraft or incoming missiles.
Both attacks will begin with a series of mammoth artillery shells, medium-range ballistic missiles and bomber attacks – possibly at night – targeting ammunition depots, radar stations, aircraft, air defense systems and other critical air bases.
Russia will try to eliminate Ukraine’s ability to defend itself in the early hours. It will carry out attacks in both cyberspace and electronic warfare (jamming) to cut off communication lines between Ukrainian military units stationed in various parts of the country.
At the same time, the Russian military will seek to dismantle Ukrainian forces, destroying bridges and using mechanical and river connection systems to force bridges.
The estimate includes grim figures for possible civilian casualties in the event of a full-scale Russian invasion: up to 50,000 civilians will be killed or injured.